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    Monthly Market Roundup                                              Market Outlook: December
                                                                        Going ahead, Indian equity markets will remain
    Indian equity markets              differs from Moody’s, holds      highly volatile this month ahead of three high
    witnessed a roller coaster         India rating at BBB, with        impact events i.e. RBI monetary policy, Gujarat
    ride in November month.            a stable outlook. On the         assembly election results and the US Fed interest
    Markets started the month          F&O expiry day benchmark         rate decision. The Gujarat assembly elections will be
    on optimistic note as World        indices logged their biggest     held in two phases on December 9 and 14. The RBI’s
    Bank report has showed             single-day fall in two           monetary policy will be announced on December 6
    India's rank in ease of doing      months, while investors also     while the Gujarat election results will be declared on
    business jumped 30 places          cut down their positions         December 18. The outcome of the assembly elections
    to 100 among 190 countries.        ahead of the GDP data.           will set the tone for the market. Further, US FOMC
    Market participants were           The month finally ended          meeting, BOE monetary policy, ECB monetary
    cautious due to concerns           with downward bias as            policy, BOJ monetary policy, macroeconomic data,
    over the impact of high            S&P BSE Sensex delivered         FIIs and DIIs trend, currency movement and crude
    crude oil prices on the fiscal     negative returns of 0.19%        oil price movement are the key factors to watch out
    deficit and an increase in         to settle at 33149.35 and        for. Investors should adopt buy on dips strategy and
    retail inflation also poured       Nifty50 lost 1.05% ending        invest in fundamentally strong companies with long
    cold water on expectations         the month at 10226.55.           term perspective.
    of further rate cuts by the        On the institutional side,
    RBI. Further, Moody’s              foreign institutional             Nifty Technical Outlook: December
    lifted equity markets mood         investors (FIIs) bought
    in the second half of the          Rs 19,727.80 crore worth of          Nifty
    month. Moody’s upgraded            equities during the month
    India’s credit rating from         while domestic mutual              On the monthly chart, after strong bull candle we
    Baa3 to Baa2, and changed          fund houses continued              are observing a spinning top candlestick pattern
    the outlook from stable            their buying spree with net        which suggests a consolidation of previous rise. In
    to positive. It’s the first        purchases of Rs 10,668.68          the coming month if Nifty trades and closes above
    upgrade of India’s rating          crore in November 2017.            10305 levels then it is likely to test 10421 – 10557 –
    in 14 years. However, S&P                                             10671 levels. However, if Nifty trades and closes
                                                                          below 10147 level then it can test 10032 – 9916 –
    Economic Data Wrap Up – November                                      9781 levels.
                                                                          Broadly, we are of the opinion that for current
    ¡	 India's Oct Nikkei              ¡	 India’s Oct trade deficit       month 10032 is crucial support level any monthly
       manufacturing PMI fell to          rose to $14.02 bln from         close below 10032 would derailed the monthly
       50.3 from 51.2 in Sep.             $11.13 bln YoY.                 uptrend. Hence as long as Nifty holds 10032
                                                                          levels there is fair chance that Nifty may retest
    ¡	 India’s Oct Nikkei services     ¡	 India’s Oct core                all time high of 10490 or even extend its gains to
       PMI rose to 51.7 from 50.7 in      sector growth at 4.7%           10600 levels in couple of months.
       Sep.                               unchanged from Sep.

    ¡	 India’s Sep IIP growth fell to  ¡	 India’s Apr-Oct fiscal
       3.8% from 4.5% in Aug.             deficit rose to Rs 5.25 trln
                                          vs Rs 4.23 trln YoY.
    ¡	 India’s Oct CPI inflation rose
       to 3.58% from 3.28% in Sep.     ¡	 India’s Jul-Sep GDP
                                          growth rose to 6.3% from
    ¡	 India’s Oct WPI inflation rose     5.7% QoQ.
       to 3.59% from 2.60% in Sep.

    3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ dECembER 2017

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